It’s a bit of a testing time recently (pun slightly intended) with the threat of a full blown second wave of Covid 19. This was anticipated by many virologists, and it got me thinking about statistics and probability. Because that’s just the sort of fun guy I am.
Imagine for a minute that you had no knowledge of how viruses work and you were looking on from afar. You’d probably think it was mighty unlucky that after decades of no Coronavirus sweeping through the population, we then have two waves in the space of six months. “What were the chances of that?” you might think. This would be because you’re treating the two waves as mutually exclusive events – like rolling a fair dice to get a 6, and then rolling it again to try and do the same. The outcome of the first roll will not affect the outcome of the second – this is the case for most instances of luck such as winning the lottery, tossing a coin etc.Continue Reading